Election Research That Sees the Whole Battlefield
Elections are won and lost in the margins — in specific districts, among specific demographics, on specific issues. Election research that understands the full complexity of an electoral landscape gives campaigns and policy analysts the tools to see the whole battlefield.
Meraki Research delivers comprehensive election research programs for campaigns, political parties, media organisations, academic institutions, and government bodies.
Electoral Analysis and Demographic Research
Generational voting shifts: How younger and older cohorts are moving, and the implications for long-term coalition building.
Urban-rural divides: The geographic sorting of the electorate and what it means for district-level strategy.
Racial and ethnic voting patterns: Trends within and across communities, with attention to heterogeneity often missed by aggregate analysis.
Educational polarisation: How education level correlates with partisan identification and how that correlation is evolving.
Gender gaps: The persistent and often widening differences in voting behaviour between men and women.
Turnout Modelling and Scenario Analysis
Our voter turnout modelling combines historical data, current survey research, and statistical modelling to project likely turnout scenarios. We model:
- Baseline, high, and low turnout scenarios for key demographic segments
- The electoral impact of specific GOTV efforts
- The sensitivity of projected outcomes to turnout variation among swing constituencies
Exit Poll Design and Analysis
We design exit poll instruments and analysis frameworks that capture not just who voted for whom, but why — the issues that drove the decision, the candidate attributes that mattered, and the information environment that shaped the choice.
Electoral Geography Research
Our electoral geography research analyses district-level voting trends, the competitive landscape of swing seats, the impact of demographic change on district composition, and how campaign resource allocation aligns with the competitive geography.
What We Deliver
| Deliverable | Format | Typical Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Election Forecast Report | Probability-based race-level projections with confidence intervals | 2–3 weeks before election |
| Turnout Model | Likely-voter screen calibrated for this cycle's electorate | Included |
| Demographic Breakdowns | Swing analysis by age, gender, geography, and education | Included |
| Post-Election Analysis | What moved, why, and what it means for next cycle | 2–4 weeks post-election |
| Exit Poll Support | On-the-day polling for same-day race calls | Scoped separately |